Daily Homicides in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Figures

The typical number of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent administrative statistics. But, public safety analysts have advised that homicide data might not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This data was delivered by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen in these past months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the smallest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key components of the President's security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that using homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is especially true considering the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas concluded.