Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
